An analysis
of ASLI’s analysis of GE-12
What is it about UMNo that makes it unable to
change, even though it knows that it has lost the majority of the popular vote
and is in imminent danger of losing the coming GE-13? Is it a death wish? Or is
it just plain arrogance, knowing or believing that it can still win the
elections by foul means more than by fair?
In an analysis of GE-12, ASLI, whose President is
none other than Mirzan Mahathir, stated that they “did not and could not then anticipate the equally strong
wave of Malay support for the
Opposition which resulted in the Opposition gaining
82 seats in Parliament, denying the Barisan Nasional of its two-thirds
majority, the first
time since the May 1969 General
Election”.
They had estimated that the Opposition would win
about 50 seats.
It was noted that in GE-12, the popular votes obtained
by UMNo
(35.5%) and combined PAS/Keadilan (34.8%)
was
almost equal. What did this
mean? Only one thing, and that is that UMNo had lost a substantial amount of
Malay support.
As the report itself asked “What happened? What caused the massive swing?” It also noted that “There are no safe bastions for Barisan Nasional anymore”.
UMNo then had realised that it would have to find
out the reasons for the loss of support, presumably so that it could repair the
damage in time for GE-13. Somehow, that repair has not taken place and
arguably, UMNo and the Barisan Nasional has continued to lose even more
support, to the extent that they are likely to lose GE-13 to Pakatan Rakyat.
The much-hyped and hoped for transformation never
really got off the ground in spite of all the time, effort and money put into
it. Was it because there was no real transformation? The truth is that this was
the case. Najib and UMNo/BN never really transformed, they only spoke of it and
gave it lip-service and in many ways continued with their old ways, ways that
had alienated the voters in GE-12 and will alienate a far greater number of
voters in GE-13.
The truth is that as the leopard cannot change its
spots, neither could UMNo/BN, even if their very political survival depended
upon it. But as the leopard is a wild animal, so is UMNo. Pakatan Rakyat and
the people who support it must not underestimate the depths to which UMNo will
sink to stay in power.
In spite of the way UMNo itself has (ironically) been
mistreating the Malays (as well as the whole country), the ASLI report purports
that it was totally “unexpected” for UMNo to lose in urban and semi-urban Malay seats.
They characterised the loss as an “emotional” swing against UMNo, ignoring the
fact that the Malays themselves (let alone the rest of the country) had and
still have real reasons to turn against UMNo.
The 2nd part of the ASLI report dealt
with “What the Election Results Mean”.
It was clear to them that it was “a seismic shift
in Malaysian politics”. The report stated, “The old ways of campaigning may no longer work.
Putting fear into voters’ minds did not work. The use of mainstream media to create spin or to demonise the opposition was detested by urban voters and had a
counter-effect instead.
From feedback, many urban voters were turned off by the
spin especially in
NST and Star”.
Yet we have seen since then an escalation of the
same spin with new variations. Clearly UMNo/BN just refused to accept their own
observations and conclusions. Is this stupidity or just plain stubbornness, an
ingrained egocentric refusal to change, even with a far bigger seismic shift of
total defeat staring at them in the face?
This time around, it is even likely that the rural
voters will also be turned off as well by the spin of Utusan.
The continued demonisation of the opposition will
once again backfire as more Chinese vote for PAS and more Malays vote for DAP. MCA,
like Gerakan, will find itself wiped out almost completely while UMNo will lose
more seats than it wins.
The opposition however must not underestimate the
power of the minority Indian vote. If the Indians know better they will also
not try to hold the opposition to ransom. Their lot will not get any better
under a continuation of UMNo/BN.
As the report said, “Makkal Sakhti (People Power),
the cry of HINDRAF,
caused a tidal wave of
support from the Indian community towards the opposition.
This seismic shift
of Indian voters contributed
to the defeat of many Barisan Nasional
candidates, not only MIC candidates”.
MIC will also face a
wipe-out for failing to address the real needs and concerns of Indians.
The report further went
on to clearly state:
“The Barisan Nasional’s brand
of race-based politics is no longer an attractive proposition
to voters. Chinese voters deserted MCA and Gerakan.
Indian voters swung away from MIC. Many Malay voters switched to Keadilan, making Keadilan the biggest opposition party with 31 parliament seats. The Opposition parties won, not on race-based issues but across a range of issues that cut across ethnic lines.
The MCA and MIC lost whilst trying to portray
themselves as defenders of their race.
UMNO
lost ground to Keadilan even
with Anwar calling for an end to NEP.
Is this then, a new paradigm for Malaysian politics that Malaysian voters are more taken in by
wider national issues such as corruption, crime, cost of living, social justice and human rights which cuts across all ethnic groups rather than narrow ethnic issues that favour
any particular race? Even MCA championing the cause of Chinese schools
didn’t get much support from the Chinese community.
But, PAS delivered votes to DAP and Chinese voters supported
both PAS and Keadilan.
Should MCA remain purely
a Chinese party when it lost more Chinese votes to the
DAP or should it become a multi-racial party and
widen its appeal to non-Chinese?
This has set the stage for a new
era of multi-racial politics in
Malaysia, perhaps the beginning of a two-party system which is healthy in any
democracy”.
In spite of this
observation, UMNo, MCA and MIC continued harping on their divisive and
unhealthy racial and religious politics while hiding behind the ostensibly
uniting theme of “1Malaysia”. They exposed their own hypocrisy for all
Malaysians to see.
For more than 50 years
Malaysians had tolerated this nonsense for the sake of peace, harmony and
development. But with UMNo/BN’s corruption and mismanagement being exposed by
their own doings, it has become clearer to all Malaysians that UMNo/BN has stolen
the country blind and that Malaysians had been short-changed by a rapacious
government that only cared for the benefit of itself and its cronies.
The gap between the rich
and poor had grown bigger and the poor were being left further behind, so much
so that Sabah and Sarawak, once among the richer regions, found themselves
among the poorest (with the highest incidence of poverty together with the
other oil-rich states of Kelantan and Terengganu).
All their oil wealth had
been siphoned off into UMNo/BN Federal government coffers via Petronas, a Federal
government-owned company that grew into the 12th most profitable
companies in the world and from there into the pockets of UMNo politicians, businessmen, families and cronies.
The report further delved into
the reasons for the swing to the opposition and stated:
“The political tsunami was brought about
by various factors, foremost of which is the perceived arrogance of power.
All racial groups – Malays, Chinese and Indians have the perception that the Barisan Nasional did not hear or listen to the voice of the
people. The Barisan Nasional mishandled
the Bersih and HINDRAF
protests. This showed no
tolerance for public assemblies and no outlet for grievances which resulted in
the aggrieved parties voting against the Barisan Nasional in
the ballot boxes.
The
Barisan Nasional’s over-confidence and poor intelligence failed to identify
growing anger and frustration of the people.
The Prime Minister’s challenge to Opposition supporters not to demonstrate but to take it to the ballot box also made many fence sitters and opposition sympathizers to vote for the opposition.
The Barisan Nasional failed to effectively read
the mood on the ground. Many urban voters in particular
the fence sitters were put off by the propaganda, spin and one-sided coverage on TV and in NST and Star”.
Yet UMNo/BN remained as
arrogant, if not became more arrogant than before. They still continued to this
day to refuse to hear or listen to the voice of the people. They continued to
show no tolerance for public assemblies. And their sick vomit-inducing propaganda
has continued to be churned out, this time even via blogs and other social
media like Facebook and Twitter. They don’t seem to have learned anything.
The report identified 9
C’s as contributing to the unprecedented swing in support to the opposition in
2008.
Nothing has changed.
These same 9 C’s and even more will also contribute towards the final defeat of
UMNo/BN in GE-13.
The 9 C’s were (and
still are): Change, Crime, Cost of Living, Corruption, Courts, Convergence of
Issues, Communications Technology, Credible Leadership and Campaign Strategy.
Change and reform are
still on the agenda of the opposition, while UMNo/BN’s purported transformation
programme has only managed to transform public funds into private pockets.
The people’s anger at
the inability of the UMNo/BN government to tackle crime effectively has
continued to grow, with UMNo/BN’s response being to point to manipulated
statistics and to try to argue unconvincingly that it is only a perception that
crime is up.
The people’s frustration at the ever-increasing cost of living has not been alleviated nor has the actual problem, notwithstanding UMNo/BN’s efforts to throw money at them in an inadequate effort purportedly to address the issue but in reality in an attempt to bribe people with their own money to vote for them.
The people’s perception
that corruption has worsened since 2008 is not merely a perception but an actual
fact. The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) has done nothing to
dispel any doubts that this is so by taking a partisan approach towards
tackling corruption and siding with UMNo/BN in exonerating it from pre-electoral
bribery and corrupt practice offences on flimsy grounds.
The people’s disgust of UMNo/BN
control of the judiciary has eased somewhat with the retirement of Zaki Tun
Azmi, UMNo lawyer who became Chief Judge, but major concerns still remain about
judicial independence.
The people’s
dissatisfaction and anger with UMNo/BN still remains and has grown because the government has
not listened or effectively addressed a whole convergence of issues that arose
in GE-12. This convergence of issues combined with a whole new convergence of
issues will arise again in GE-13 to bite UMNo/BN in the backside with a
vengeance.
The people
continue to trust opposition news on the internet more than the
UMNo/BN-controlled mainstream media. Communications technology has been adapted
to well by the opposition. UMNo/BN has not been able to respond well enough to counter
this, mainly because their inherent bias has caused them to take on the same
spin found in the mainstream media. This has continued to turn people off.
UMNo/BN “cybertroopers” have not been smart or independent enough to break out
of their masters’ molds.
Their heavy-handed
spin, distortion, pure fabrication and disinformation tactics in the cyber
media have been heavily, if not completely, discounted by the people. UMNo/BN
has not only lost credibility in the mainstream media but on the internet as
well, and they have only themselves to blame for believing their own propaganda
and expecting others to do so also.
Notwithstanding
their unfair control of the mainstream media, UMNo/BN has not shown that it is
willing to give alternative views any chance. But in Sarawak, the opposition’s
reach into the rural areas has been greatly extended by Radio Free Sarawak
(RFS), which is beamed out of London and Sarawak BN has complained bitterly
about RFS’s unfair “spin”, ironically failing to see that RFS’s growing
popularity in rural Sarawak is due to the BN’s stranglehold on the mainstream
media.
In their
bizarre attempts to defend Taib Mahmud’s much debunked “politics of development”
– in reality his own development and that of his family, cronies and henchmen
only, all already wealthy beyond imagination at the expense of the ordinary
poor people of Sarawak – Sarawak BN and its component parties have exposed
their own shortcomings and betrayal of the people.
The truth be
told, notwithstanding their bare-faced lies, they probably feel ashamed of
being exposed by RFS and its internet counterpart, Sarawak Report. Nevertheless,
they are compelled by their own self-interests and their instincts for
self-preservation from the legendary wrath of Taib Mahmud to ignore the
legitimate grouses of the people whom they wilfully continue to marginalize, oppress
and suppress.
This time around in GE-13, they may see an uprising of the rural people of Sarawak (and elsewhere in Sabah and even Malaya) like they have never seen before.
The
opposition must continue to provide credible leadership. There is no shortage
of capable and qualified potential leaders who must be given some measure of
independence in organizing things on the ground and not have to depend on the
dictates of the central leadership of Pakatan Rakyat.
Central
control, especially in Sarawak and Sabah, must be loosened to enable the local
leadership to bloom. This is something that Pakatan Rakyat, especially PKR, is
still wrestling with, even at this late stage. PKR’s top leadership must learn
to listen to the grassroots leadership of both territories who know better the
situation on the ground. Too much interference from the top will upset local
sensitivities that Malayans may not even be aware of.
This is a
game UMNo/BN has learned to play well in Sarawak and Sabah, thereby giving them
the misbegotten and unwise feeling that Sarawak and Sabah are their “fixed
deposits”. This time around it is highly likely that they will be proven wrong,
provided Pakatan Rakyat does not mess it up.
The old
school approach of UMNo/BN – that of carrot and stick - does not work any more.
That UMNo/BN persist in adopting such a strategy shows how much out of touch
with reality they have become over the years.
Promises and
fear didn’t work for UMNo/BN in GE-12 and it certainly isn’t going to work
either in GE-13, provided Pakatan Rakyat fine-tunes its own strategies and
avoids playing into the hands of UMNo/BN or dancing to their tune.
The people
too must understand that it would be most expensive to allow themselves to fall
prey to an unrepentant UMNo/BN’s tricks.
Already UMNo/BN
through its extravagance, mismanagement, greed, rapaciousness and recklessness has
racked up an unprecedented deficit exceeding RM500 billion, or a debt of more than
RM18,000-00 for each and every Malaysian man, woman and child.
A Pakatan
Rakyat government will have to deal with this, but it can only do so if it
recognizes the damage caused by UMNo/BN’s profligation and avoids the same
mistakes. Repairing that damage is not going to be easy.
UMNoputeras
and their BN co-conspirators have milked this country dry at the expense of
their own Malay supporters and ordinary people of the rural heartland. They
have shown no remorse nor any change that will benefit the ordinary rural
people. Instead they have resorted to violence, intimidation and gangster-like
behaviour to prevent the opposition from enlightening the rural people of the
real situation.
They have continued
to disrupt Pakatan Rakyat activites even in urban areas. They fail to realise
that this is not conducive to generating any goodwill for UMNo/BN and the
voters will be inclined to punish them for this.
The UMNo/BN
leadership is to be blamed for this and if they allow things to get further out
of control. Instead of humility, they have continued to show more arrogance. They
did not learn any lesson whatsoever from GE-12.
It is as if
they have not seen the writing on the wall or any of the warning signs.
ASLI did say
say very clearly that “What the 12th
General Election provided is a timely wake-up call to all political parties. They need to change, reform
and deliver”.
Irrespective of the
reasons for failure, this UMNo/BN has failed to do, in spite of its
transformation programme and 1Malaysia sloganeering. It failed to reinvent
itself to stay relevant. It only engaged in tokenism, giving crumbs to the
people hungry for real food while gorging itself on the backs of the people’s
blood, sweat and tears. It will be consigned to the dustbin of history, as it
deserves to be.
Pakatan
Rakyat must heed these lessons. They will win GE-13 - against all odds of a
rigged electoral system only with overwhelming support from the people - with a
short leash and limited licence. The people will no longer be tolerant of
failures to deliver or misdeliveries.
Promises
made must be kept. Sarawak and Sabah certainly deserve better. Autonomy must be
restored (in the case of Sarawak after the state government has been changed) as
they must not be seen merely as 2 out of 13 states but full-fledged nations in
their own right as part of the Malaysian Federation with Malaya. Let there be
no hard-headedness about this from Malaya, which has already benefitted from almost
40 years of Sarawak and Sabah’s oil resources – time to give back.
Otherwise, like
Singapore, independence will be the only other option for Sarawak and Sabah.
The Sarawak Headhunter
