Wednesday, December 3, 2008

What Is The Real Sarawak Dilemma?

The Sarawak Dilemma

Posted by admin
Tuesday, 02 December 2008 20:22

From Malaysia Today

Comments by Sarawak Headhunter in red.

Why the Federal Government prefers to separate the state elections for this East Malaysian state is irrelevant. The fact that Pakatan Rakyat desperately needs to win here to get the momentum of “change” going is of paramount importance.

The fact is that it is not that the Federal Government prefers to separate the state elections for Sarawak. It has no choice in the matter, given that the last state elections were only held hardly 2 years ago. Historically this can be traced back to the revolt against Taib Mahmud in 1987 which caused the state elections to be held in mid-term. Since then, the Chief Minister decides when to call for state elections, after ostensibly consulting or informing the Prime Minister as head of the BN.

One relevant query at this point in time is whether there is a Pakatan Rakyat in Sarawak or not, given that the State DAP has not yet agreed to cooperate with PKR - in view of its misgivings about the PKR Sarawak Head, Dominique Ng - and as to what role PAS would or should play, if any.

As the largest state in Malaysia with a land area equivalent to approximately 124,450 square kilometers, Sarawak has 71 state constituencies making it the state with the highest number of state constituencies. Though not the most heavily populated state with only about 2,400,000 residents, Sarawak nonetheless represents an important part of Malaysia with its abundance of natural resources, namely timber, LNG and petroleum. With Kedah (rice), Penang (tourism & technology), Perak (tin and rubber), Selangor (business) and Kelantan already being PR controlled, adding Sarawak to the list is of utmost importance as this is one of the two East Malaysian states. It also represents a vital foothold across the sea to establish an effective opposition front during the next general elections.

Sarawakians are made up from 52% Ethnics, 26% Chinese, 21% Malays and 1% Indians and others. The major political parties here consist of Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (BN), Sarawak United People’s Party (BN), Parti Rakyat Sarawak (BN), Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (BN), Sarawak National Party (Independent), DAP (PR) and PKR (PR). Using the previous Parliamentary Elections as a yardstick, the BN coalition won 30 seats out of a total of 31 seats contested. This represented a 96.8% win for the BN parties. That however only exhibits one side of the grim picture. What PR needs to understand when looking at the alternate side is that there was an additional 3.0% swing to the BN parties when compared to the 2004 Parliamentary elections (only Perlis on the Malaysian peninsular swung to BN whilst Sabah and Labuan both swung 4.0% to BN).

It should be noted that the so-called 52% "Ethnics" or rather natives comprise a fairly diverse group of ethnicities which the Iban majority (30%) has tried to rally under the unifying umbrella of "Dayakism". This has not worked and the Ibans themselves remain divided among the major state BN parties such as PBB, PRS, SPDP and (surprise!) even SUPP - a Chinese-based party itself while those who used to be in or affiliated with the dying or dead SNAP and PBDS and stillborn MDC are now faced with joining PKR or setting up a completely new party.

While they have stopped trusting Taib, the real Sarawak Dilemma is that the natives also don't trust the Malayans, whether of the BN or of Pakatan Rakyat origins. This is what PR needs to understand. Sarawak needs a completely new party and a new leader to rally ALL Sarawakians. Whether this can be done in time or not is another matter.

With Gabriel Adit’s entry into PR early this month, Sarawak is now represented by 2 PR parliamentarians. That is still a 93.5% BN parliamentary representation. He brought over 12,000 supporters but this only represents a miserly 0.5% of the state’s population. For the state elections, PR needs to win a simple majority of 36 seats. To achieve this, the swing must almost be identical to Kuala Lumpur’s 2008 results (19.7% to PR). Is this possible? That percentage equates to a minimum of 240,000 BN votes changing to PR votes. Take away the 12,000 new votes and PR still requires a minimal 228,000 BN voters to change their mind.

Presumably the writer meant "State Assemblymen" instead of "parliamentarians". Sarawak Headhunter however is not adverse to the Sarawak State Assembly being renamed the Sarawak State Parliament, once Taib Mahmud is gone of course. A 20% swing is possible, but not just to PR. A completely new Sarawak-based party leading PR in the state could even make it a 30% swing to the opposition.

DAP now has 6 (Pending, Batu Lintang, Kota Sentosa, Meradong, Bukit Assek & Kidurong) state seats whilst PKR has 2 (Padungan & Ngemah) and SNP (independent) has 1 (Engkilili). That is 9 opposition seats against 62 BN seats. That means BN parties make up 85% of the state government and this entitles them to a “carte blanche” situation whereby the opposition voice is effectively muted. If 14 BN state councilors cross over to PR, the BN coalition still retains a two-third majority. If the opposition party intends to curtail this overwhelming BN position, they will need to win at least 24 state seats (to deny BN the two-third majority).

Let’s look at Sarawak in detail. Sarawak is divided into 11 administrative divisions. They are Betong, Bintulu, Kapit, Kuching, Limbang, Miri, Mukah, Samarahan, Sarikei, Sibu, and Sri Aman. Of the nine state opposition seats, Padungan and Pending are under Kuching – a 90% Chinese populated area. Batu Lintang and Kota Sentosa are under Stampin, which is another Chinese populated area (78%). Meradong (Sarikei) has a 67.2% Chinese population, Bukit Assek (Lanang) has a 73% Chinese population and Kidurong (Bintulu) has a 26% Chinese population. These are the state seats that were won at the polls by PR. Look closely and one will identify one quantifying factor – the Chinese vote. With only a 25% Chinese population within the state of Sarawak, will this be sufficient to cause a change of state government? The answer is no.

Obviously, but the Chinese vote is still critical to ensure that the BN loses in all the urban areas and that these seats, most of whom were won by the DAP and one by PKR, are retained in the hands of the DAP and PKR respectively.

Before PR can look at other alternatives, they must get the fundamentals right. Let’s look at the state constituencies with more than 50% Chinese as voters. Other than those stated above, the rest are Bawang Assan, Pelawan and Nangka in the Sibu Division (60%); Piasau, Pujut and Senadin in the Miri Division (55%); Repok in Sarikei (67%); Batu Kawah in Stampin (78%); and Dudong in Lanang (73%). This is only another miserable 9 state seats. Add this hypothetical figure to the existing 9 seats and you get 18 seats altogether (if PR relies purely on the Chinese votes). BN still holds the two-thirds majority.

If the Chinese voters are convinced to vote for DAP, these 18 seats are nothing to sniff at and would go a long way towards ensuring the overall and crushing defeat of the BN in the next state elections.

It can henceforth be determined conclusively that PR needs to court the critical Iban and Melanau votes. Without these, PR can never string up sufficient state seats to trouble the BN parties. The theoretical 18 seats only make up 25% of the state assembly. PR needs 24 state seats to deny BN the two-thirds majority and 36 state seats to form the state government.

Other than the Iban and Melanau votes, the Malay, Bidayuh and Orang Ulu votes must not be forgotten. Every vote counts, especially when Taib Mahmud and the Sarawak BN will use all means, mainly foul, to stay in power even after losing the support of the majority of Sarawakians.

With the impending state elections due in 30 months (or thereabouts), everything should be on express mode now. PR must start, and start now to establish themselves in Sarawak. This is the last chance for them to grab another state before 2013. They must be ready when it happens because the 31 parliamentary seats are actually on stake here even though it is only the 71 state seats that are being contested. A good showing here would mean that the possibility of a federal election win is underway. A fair showing would mean that there are still a lot of things to be done in Sarawak and a bad showing would be disastrous. Both Sabah and Sarawak have 25 and 31 parliamentary seats respectively. That is 56 out of the 222 available seats, or 25% of the total.

The next state elections are not due until 2011, but with the pressure that Taib Mahmud is now facing and the questionable state of his health, he could conceivably call for snap elections at any time from now, given that the opposition (PR) has not yet garnered sufficient support in the state nor consolidated its position. Are they ready?

And then there are Pensiangan and Kuala Terengganu to see where the pendulum swings.

Sarawakians don't care which way the pendulum swings in Sabah or Malaya. What they are more concerned about is how they will be treated by a new government. Only the confidence of better treatment will swing the votes needed to topple the BN in Sarawak.

- Hakim Joe


5 comments:

United States Of All-Borneo said...

You are right. Sarawakians never trust Malayans, as Malayans have proven themselves as cheaters. Sarawak & Sabah demotion from equal partners to merely states, as humble as Perlis; the erosion of the 20 points agreement, and many more. Anwar Ibrahim is as crooked as Mahathir, Razak, Husein, Rahman. The only reason why I favour him now is because he is the only Malayan Malay who dares stand up to UMNO.
We have STAR to promote. We have PRS and James Masing. Only then should we join Pakatan Rakyat.
It is ideal that Sarawak leave Malaysia.

Eric Cartman said...

well said bro! keep up kicking!

Dyaksblog said...

Self-Inflicting Damage By J*bu: Keep Pinching The T*ts!

Very fine, lovely day my dear Dayaks. In life, most of us always make life difficult for ourselves such as taking loans that will eat your future income and finally will make you die a broke. My apology if that heighten your fear on the ever-impending recession that will send all of us back into jungle age but don't worry too much as Dayaks can always surive by eating tapioca leaves and dried or preserved wild boar meat alone. At least that's my version on 'there's a light at the end of the tunnel' but I believe that in any crisis there's always cycle of karma involved. Just like in any life experience there'll be peak and trough, it's just that you should smell some blood to strike it. Right, I guess my hypnosis just started now so shall we?

You have no idea how damaging it is after J*bu critising Gabby Adit for joining PKR. And you have no idea how ridiculous for J*bu to keep bonking on Salcra big dividend payouts knowing that RM250 per month received by the Dayak participants either some pre-emptive joke or some illusory bollocks. These two tits pinched by J*bu, if done rhetorically nonstop at least until the next year's rumored state election will be instead a BIG favour for all Dayaks. In the last general election, those BN Dayak MPs basically in serious level of distrust among general Dayaks as you can see some Dayak oppositions gaining easily extra 5,000 or more. Forget about the majority win by Dayak BN as some of their majority gap were fast closing down evidently despite the opposition's limited resources and rampant vote buying around. Some of you may argue that sentiments alone will not win you a big vote but you never know the Dayaks, with growing number of youth voters and the ever depleting group of those older voters (good riddance anyway!) may hold the key of why those votes falls into opposition gains. There are more than sentiments alone. It's done by BN themselves unknowingly, unconciously turn out a big favour to the oppositions instead. Let us hope that J*bu keep pinching those two tits more since all of us got no idea how damaging it gonna be to BN or beneficial to the opposition in the coming state election.

What J*bu have done and will keep doing (he's not going to stop criticising the oppositions anyway, let alone praising them) is a classic case of self-inflicting damage turns against your back. The more you criticise, the more people get incensed or feeling disgusted since you think you've done a very smart move by denying people's hope for 'change'. Exactly the same thing happened to John McCain in his bid to become U.S president. By randomly picking up Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, it was one of the biggest Republican disaster ever (well the other disaster is the outgoing Dubya Bush of course) and the disaster of Sarah Palin series of poking on things that Americans viewed as everyday nuisance such as conservatism, guns-lovin' policy, Christianity as moral authority, lack of foreign policy prowess; all of these tits that for Americans either simply piss and tired off or endless late night jokes. Sarah Palin's every single move/policy/agenda basically a self-inflicted damage. It's only natural for U.S media to gladly pick it as parody like that comedian Tina Fey's comment (Palin impersonation) on Saturday Night Live "I can see Russia from my house" or actor Matt Damon's view that Sarah Palin is such a wimp to face and fight Russian President Vladimir Putin, let alone leave her with nuclear codes since Sarah Palin admitted that her foreign policy lacked depth and experience. Here, Barack Obama didn't do anything much against McCain-Palin camp except letting all the 'jokes' coming, all made by Palin herself. Those funny jokes in fact translate million of extra votes for Barack Obama. Not bad for a Kenyan boy with skinny leg and small arm and that funny ears.

Another type of bad tits to pinch is using anus jokes right here in our ever-loony country. Some psyco-fool would do it by swearing on some thick book of telephone directory or something that translate extra votes to opposing election candidate. Would you expect people with general logic conscience to believe that by swearing your anus on telephone directory you can run away scot-free from any crime or whatever man-made crime? Same goes to vote buying; the more you 'donate' the more for voters to pick opposing candidate as a form of counter-cynic your effort to undermine their hope for 'change' as people will view you as trying to force-fed what the people should believe. And why should you believe that by wasting hundred of millions taxpayers' money can turn a boring town like Betong into a big metropolitan city? It's shall stay a boring town anyway just like the fresh fruit bunch of mystic palm oil with currently low price; stay there to rot. How about building a polytechnic at Lachau bazaar? You know, some words related like poly and certain body part. Right, 'population agenda' indeed. Splendid mix of bad jokes that people will get sick and tired off. Even Yang Dikasihi himself keep blaming the Dayaks for being shifting cultivators that somehow caused much trouble in solving NCR land fiasco, what more to say for his minions like the shameless Yes-Men Narodeen and Awang 'Tanah' with their relentless shit-stirring antics. You see Dayaks, all of these govt bollocks can be conveniently reversed as jokes if the opposition wanted it to be and view it as potential voting gains.

The Dyaks Blog Final Donkeys:

We all Dayaks know that whatever J*bu might criticise are mostly a case of bad tits being pinched and somehow provoke more Dayaks to support the opposition. So for the opposition, they must let the 'jokes' coming and save their resources for other tactics rather than fighting all-out against J*bu and his goons. The Dayaks knows that govt has been denying much of their belongings, being cheated in broad daylight with scores of legit excuses. It's no longer sentiments foreplay, like 'kiss me before we get laid', it's a fact that it's a fastly growing need by the Dayaks to support and vote the opposition. The govt themselves like J*bu basically provoke the Dayaks, not the opposition. Whether the Dayaks merely exercising protest vote or finally awaken by dirty deeds by govt that blinded them for so long, it's natural for the opposition in gaining their votes. For me, just let J*bu does the damage to er, BN actually, not to opposition. Therefore J*bu should continue the damage knowing that it's highly unlikely, absurd for J*bu to suddenly stop criticising the opposition. The more J*bu pinch the tits and make himself a Dayak joke, the better. Remember, try to reverse any attack into our advantage. Govt may use heat-seeking missile but the heat itself generated by J*bu to u-turn, boomerang-style the missile and bust his own anus instead. So much for J*bu's mind-provocateur turns opposite karma cycle eh?

Right folks, till we blog again. Anus and off!

Regards,
The Dyaks Blog
http://dyaksblog.wordpress.com/2008/12/04/jbu-pinching-the-tits/

jumpover said...

Today swk'n knew that "pala uban + jabuu" + their cronies going to control everythings. the solution is...kick them

susan said...

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